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USING PROBABILISTIC CELLULAR AUTOMATA TO MODEL THE TRANSMISSION OF AN EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASE OF AMPHIBIANS, RANAVIRUS, IN THE UNITED KINGDOM**

Abstract

Emerging infectious diseases are major threats to amphibian biodiversity. Ranaviruses (Family Iridoviridae) are a group of globally emerging infections that affect poikilothermic vertebrates. In the United Kingdom, the emergence of ranaviruses has been followed by the decline of populations of common frogs (Rana temporaria) across the country. Simple susceptible-infected (SI) and combinatorial models have been developed to explain the spread of Ranavirus in populations of common frogs; here we use those models as a basis for developing a transmission model using cellular automata with the programming language Python.

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