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USING TEST 1 GRADES TO PREDICT STUDENT SUCCESS IN FRESHMAN MATH COURSES AT GEORGIA GWINNETT COLLEGE**

Abstract

Completing a mathematics course during the first year of college is a strong predictor for long-term academic success. Consequently, failure to satisfy the general education mathematics requirement can serve as a significant barrier to students’ degree progression. Research across the University System of Georgia (USG) shows that many institutions experience high D, F, or W (Withdrawal) rates in freshman mathematics courses. At Georgia Gwinnett College (GGC), these rates range from 35% to 80%, which is slightly higher than those of peer institutions within the USG. Multiple factors contribute to these elevated DFW rates, including inadequate study habits, limited college preparedness, poor class attendance, low homework completion, and substantial work and familial commitments outside of school. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the first test or exam grade can serve as a predictor of student success in freshman mathematics courses at GGC. Specifically, the study will examine if there is a relationship between the students’ first test scores and their overall course grades. To accomplish this, data will be collected for both first test scores and final course grades from a sample of freshman mathematics courses offered during the Fall 2025 semester. The percentage of students receiving a D, F, or W on the first test will be calculated and compared with the percentage of students who ultimately earn a final course grade of D, F, or W. The percentage of students who earned a D, F, or W in the course who also earned a D, F, or W on the first test or exam will also be calculated to determine the proportion of common students. Additionally, the analysis will explore correlations between first test scores and final exam scores. This will be done both collectively across all courses and disaggregated by course type. Based on the results of this exploratory study, a three-year data pull (Spring 2022 through Spring 2025) will be conducted for further comparison. If a meaningful relationship between first test performance and final course outcomes is identified, a series of early intervention strategies will be developed and implemented in these freshman mathematics courses beginning in Spring 2026.

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